[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Russia is a country that is geographically located partly in Europe and partly in Asia. Moscow is the largest city, capital and economic heart of Russia. This is where the government resides. With an area of 17,098,246 km², Russia is the largest country in the world, almost twice the size of the next largest country, Canada. Russia is the ninth largest country in the world in terms of population. Russia shares its borders with the following fourteen countries: Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, China, Mongolia and North Korea. Furthermore, it is separated by a narrow strait between the United States (Alaska) and Japan. Russia has approximately 146,270,330 inhabitants.[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=”.vc_custom_1681936521068{margin-bottom: 50px !important;}”]Russia is the world’s 11th largest economy, with a GDP of $1.48 trillion as of 2020, 3% lower than in 2019. Russia has moved toward a more market-based economy over the 30 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union, but government ownership of and intervention in business is still common. As a leading exporter of oil and gas and other minerals and metals, Russia’s economy is susceptible to swings in world commodity prices. Since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has received a record amount of sanctions from the international community. The sanctions include bans against Russian gas and oil, frozen central bank assets, and removal from the global bank messaging system Swift. The international community froze the assets of wealthy and powerful Russian citizens and restricted their ability to travel. They restricted the sale of Russian raw materials and energy and worked to prevent Russia from getting its hands on various kinds of defense and information technologies. They imposed financial sanctions on Russian banks and curtailed Russia’s access to foreign capital and financial markets.

Because of the resilience and swift reactions of the Russian Central Bank, the Russian economy has so far weathered the storm of sanctions. Many countries stopped buying goods from Russia, but the country’s export income increased by more than 40% to roughly $120 billion in 2022 because of higher prices of fossil fuels. The most significant contribution to this came from natural gas, which was still in high demand throughout Europe. Recently, the G7 countries imposed a price cap on oil of 60 dollars per barrel to reduce the profits of Russian oil exports. Canada, the United States, and Australia have banned all imports of Russian oil. The European Union banned more than 90% of Russia’s previous oil exports to the EU.

So far the impact of the economic sanctions on the Russian economy has been a topic of hot debate. Analysts now fall into two camps: those who believe that Russia is still in crisis and those who argue that sanctions don’t work. However, evidence suggests that sanctions are indeed taking a toll on the Russian economy, with the country’s budget deficit reaching 88% of the planned total for the coming year.

The exact impact on the Russian economy is hard to measure since Russia’s self-reported statistics on its economic performance could easily be falsified.

Russia’s special Military operation

Putin describes the war in Ukraine as a special military operation. His goal is to demilitarise and de-Nazify Ukraine. His declared aim was to protect people subjected to what he called eight years of bullying and genocide by Ukraine’s government. He wants to prevent Nato from gaining a foothold in Ukraine and ensure Ukraine’s neutrality.

So far, Russia’s military operation did not go as planned.According to the Institute for the Study of War data indicates that Russia had previously taken over 51,000 square miles (132,000 square kilometers) of Ukrainian land, but has now lost one-fifth of it. Presently, Russia controls only 40,000 square miles of Ukrainian territory, which is situated entirely in the south and east, constituting 17% of the country, which is twice the size of Italy. ( as of March 2023)

Although Russia still holds a majority of the land in the four regions it had tried to annex illegally last year, namely Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk, it has lost control of land in all these regions, except Zaporizhzhia since the annexation on September 30. Specifically, in Kherson, Russia previously controlled 93% of the land in June, but now only controls 73%.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][dfd_spacer screen_wide_spacer_size=”80″ screen_normal_resolution=”1024″ screen_tablet_resolution=”800″ screen_mobile_resolution=”480″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

Policy options:

 

• Stop the offensive and try to annex the currently occupied territories. 

This option would give Russia control over a significant portion of eastern and southern Ukraine. Putin could walk away with a sense of victory.

• Push to occupy the rest of Ukraine.

This option will push the Russian army and resources to the maximum. However, this would leave Russia in control of Ukraine. Pursuing this option would entail continued fighting until Ukraine surrenders.

• Attack additional European countries, and use nuclear bombs to keep the West at a distance.

Achieving this option would require a prolonged military campaign during which civilian and military deaths would increase, outside support could wane, and Russia will remain isolated from the world economy.

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