Climate Change Simulation
Good evening, everyone,
Our mission is to reduce the overall temperature rise on Earth by the end of the century to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit. This goal has been set as the ideal scenario, and it’s the same target that 196 countries committed to when they signed and ratified the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement. When countries joined the Paris Agreement, they committed to submitting Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). NDCs are documents that outline each country’s planned efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. These contributions are meant to represent a country’s highest possible ambition, given its domestic circumstances and capabilities. NDCs are essentially targets or aspirations rather than binding commitments. They represent a country’s intended actions, but their fulfillment depends on various factors, including political will, economic circumstances, and the implementation of effective policies and measures. Because the NDCs are aspirational documents, it is important to track countries’ progress and what they effectively did to reach their goals. The current policies are nicely explained on websites such as the Climatewatch’s tracker, or the Climate Action Tracker.
To begin our simulation, we’ll each pick a country we want to represent. Once you’ve chosen your country, it’s time to dive in and explore the realities it faces. Start by researching your country’s main energy sources and what it needs to survive and thrive in the short and long run. This will give you a solid foundation from which to work. Start with the websites listed above, and choose one of the countries listed in the graph below.
CO2 Emissions by Country 2023 (Gt)
Country Comparison Table
| Country | GDP per Capita (2023) | GHG Emissions (2023, Gt CO₂) | Total Surface Area (km²) | Total Population (2023) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 12556 | 15.68 | 9596961 | 1412600000 |
| United States | 70248 | 5.4 | 9525067 | 332400000 |
| India | 2389 | 3.9 | 3287263 | 1408600000 |
| Russia | 12193 | 1.6 | 17098242 | 143400000 |
| Japan | 42928 | 1.1 | 377975 | 125700000 |
| Iran | 7208 | 0.72 | 1648195 | 87900000 |
| Germany | 52559 | 0.64 | 357114 | 83200000 |
| Saudi Arabia | 23139 | 0.62 | 2149690 | 35400000 |
| South Korea | 33590 | 0.66 | 100210 | 51700000 |
| Indonesia | 4349 | 0.54 | 1904569 | 276400000 |
En-Roads Simulation
The Earth's temperature is on the rise. According to the En-ROADS climate change solutions simulator ( see below), if we continue with business as usual, the Earth's temperature will increase by 3.3 degrees Celsius or 6 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100. You aim to explore each slider in the simulator and manipulate their values based on your assigned country's policies. The En-ROADS simulator can be found on the MIT website. By clicking on the three dots next to each variable's name, you can access additional sliders to adjust. For every factor you choose to manipulate, you must also fill out the additional details by clicking on that variable's menu. An extensive user guide is available on the En-roads website.
In each round of the simulation, each country can suggest two actions. An action can include moving one of the 18 levers one step in either direction (left or right), or reversing another group's action. When choosing which sliders to adjust, keep the context of your assigned country in mind. For example, taxing oil would not make sense if you were representing Saudi Arabia since your country's economy primarily relies on oil exports. Implementing an oil tax would likely paralyze your country's economy. After adjusting the sliders, countries must negotiate with one another to try and reach a consensus on the best course of action to mitigate climate change.
After completing the simulation, each team should present their findings in a short presentation.
- Introduce your country's overall profile. What energy sources does your country use? How is it affected by climate change? What policies is your country trying to implement to combat climate change?
- After playing the simulation, what are your strategy's top 3 most important policies? (For example, the most important sliders that you moved).
- What actions are needed in businesses, civil society, government, and the public to implement your proposals over the next two years?
- After examining the IPCC's Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), which scenario do you think your country will most likely follow?
Resources:
The Interactive Atlas from the IPCC.
Explanation of the SSPs by the Canadian Government. ( Simplified explanation) The original SSPs are explained in IPCC's AR6.
The World Bank's Knowledge Portal on Climate Change and the Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs)